Early Warning Project

Overview

The Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum and the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College. It uses quantitative and qualitative research methods to identify countries at heightened risk of mass atrocities before violence begins.

Key functions and role

The project produces an annual Statistical Risk Assessment ranking more than 160 countries by their likelihood of experiencing a new episode of mass killing, drawing on publicly available data and statistical modeling. It supplements this with crowd-forecasting tools, including a public opinion pool of subject-matter experts, and in-depth qualitative reports on selected high-risk countries such as Myanmar, Mali, Cameroon and Papua, Indonesia, intended to inform governments, civil society groups and other actors capable of taking preventive action.

History

The Museum's Committee on Conscience, formed to fulfill the founding charter's mandate that the institution work to prevent future genocides, evolved into the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide. The Early Warning Project launched publicly in 2015 after a two-year pilot phase, becoming, according to the Museum, the first public early-warning system of its kind for mass atrocities. The Museum unveiled an updated version of the tool in 2018, adding coverage of non-state perpetrators of mass killing.

Political positions

The U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum describes itself as a nonpartisan, independent establishment of the U.S. government, and the Early Warning Project presents its work as an empirical, statistically grounded early-warning tool rather than an advocacy platform focused on any particular country or government.

Leadership

Naomi Kikoler directs the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, which oversees the Early Warning Project alongside its partners at Dartmouth's Dickey Center. Sara J. Bloomfield serves as Director of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.

Location and contact info

Address
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
100 Raoul Wallenberg Place SW
Washington, DC 20024, USA
Phone
202-488-0400
Email
genocideprevention@ushmm.org
Website
https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org